The plays we see, priced against Polymarket where both sides add to 100, logged at the number you'd actually get, and scored against the close.

How to read this board

Every game gets an independent number from our model, set against the live Polymarket price. Where the two disagree enough, that's a play; where they agree, we pass. Nothing here is juiced — on Polymarket both sides add to 100.

Our numberThe bet we'd actually make — the side and the market (spread, total, or moneyline).
Model vs marketThe bar. The light tick is where the market prices it; the dark tick is our number. The shaded gap between them is the edge.
Market · We sayThose two ticks as percentages — the market's implied chance, then ours. We say minus market is the edge.
EdgeOur percentage minus the market's, in points. Bigger means we disagree with the market more, in your favor.
ReturnProfit per dollar risked at that price. A big edge on a pricey favorite still pays little — those show in red as "too rich to play."
Flagged vs passGold-edged rows are plays. A muted "pass" means we agree with the market — most nights that's most games, and saying so is the whole point.
Click any gameOpens the full scale, why we like it, the situational history, and a button to trade it straight on Polymarket.
Kept honestEvery play is logged at the price you'd really get and scored against where the line closes — win or lose, out in the open.
Play of the day Sun 9/27 · 12:00 PM CT · NFL
Panthers -3.5
at
35%45%55%
market 43.5%we say 46.5%
Edge+3.0
Return on stake+6.9%
Price43.5¢
Quarter Kelly1.3%
Our projected final
Panthers 22.6–19.5 Browns
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 41 → 42
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Haynes King Out
  • TE Ja'Tavion Sanders Out
  • DT Bobby Brown Out
  • DE Patrick Jones Out
  • LB Tyrel Dodson Out
  • QB Taylen Green Out
  • QB Dillon Gabriel IR
  • CB Toriano Pride Out
  • C Parker Brailsford Out
  • LB Justin Jefferson Out

Why this one

  • We make Panthers 46.5% to hit — the market prices it at 43.5%. That 3.0-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 43.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.

The board

Every NFL game with a live market. 8 flagged, 8 passed.

GameOur numberModel vs market MarketWe sayEdgeReturn
@Sun 12:00 PMPanthers -3.5spread
43.546.5+3.0+6.9%
Our projected final
Panthers 22.6–19.5 Browns
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 41 → 42
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Haynes King Out
  • TE Ja'Tavion Sanders Out
  • DT Bobby Brown Out
  • DE Patrick Jones Out
  • LB Tyrel Dodson Out
  • QB Taylen Green Out
  • QB Dillon Gabriel IR
  • CB Toriano Pride Out
  • C Parker Brailsford Out
  • LB Justin Jefferson Out
33%45%57%
market 43.5%we say 46.5%
Edge +3.0 · Return on stake +6.9% · Price 43.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 1.3%

Why this one

  • We make Panthers 46.5% to hit — the market prices it at 43.5%. That 3.0-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 43.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.

Situational history

  • Browns are 29-46 ATS (39%) at home on Sundays since 2015.
  • Panthers are 26-41 ATS (39%) as a road favorite since 2015.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 12:00 PMChargers +6.5spread
45.047.5+2.5+5.6%
Our projected final
Chargers 21.8–28.7 Bills
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 50 → 50.5
Injury report Sleeper
  • TE David Njoku Out
  • OT Alex Harkey Out
  • DB Deane Leonard Out
  • G Logan Taylor Out
  • CB Elijah Molden Out
  • WR DJ Moore Out
  • RB Ty Johnson Out
  • WR Skyler Bell Out
  • DT Ed Oliver Out
  • DL T.J. Sanders Out
34%46%58%
market 45.0%we say 47.5%
Edge +2.5 · Return on stake +5.6% · Price 45.0¢ · Quarter Kelly 1.2%

Why this one

  • We make Chargers 47.5% to hit — the market prices it at 45.0%. That 2.5-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 45.0¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Thu 7:15 PMOver 44.5total
46.548.4+1.9+4.1%
Our projected final
Falcons 18.6–25.4 Packers
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 44.5 → 44
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Tua Tagovailoa Out
  • QB Michael Penix Out
  • DB Billy Bowman Out
  • G Ethan Onianwa Out
  • CB Malcolm DeWalt Out
  • WR Jayden Reed Out
  • OL John Williams Out
  • OT Travis Glover Out
  • DT Javon Hargrave Out
  • OL Zach Bako-Bewele Out
35%47%59%
market 46.5%we say 48.4%
Edge +1.9 · Return on stake +4.1% · Price 46.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 0.9%

Why this one

  • We make the over 48.4% to hit — the market prices it at 46.5%. That 1.9-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 46.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 12:00 PMTitansmoneyline
27.529.4+1.9+6.9%
Our projected final
Titans 18.6–24.4 Giants
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • TE Kylen Granson Out
  • DB James Williams Out
  • OL Atonio Mafi Out
  • DB Cor'Dale Flott Out
  • DE Jackie Marshall Out
  • WR Calvin Austin IR
  • WR Gunner Olszewski IR
  • CB Thaddeus Dixon IR
  • DE Roy Robertson-Harris IR
  • CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse IR
16%28%40%
market 27.5%we say 29.4%
Edge +1.9 · Return on stake +6.9% · Price 27.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 0.6%

Why this one

  • We make Titans 29.4% to hit — the market prices it at 27.5%. That 1.9-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 27.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Mon 7:15 PMRams73.5¢ — too rich to play
73.575.0+1.5+2.0%
Our projected final
Giants 20.3–27.2 Rams
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • WR Calvin Austin IR
  • WR Gunner Olszewski IR
  • CB Thaddeus Dixon IR
  • DE Roy Robertson-Harris IR
  • CB Jarrick Bernard-Converse IR
No key injuries
62%74%86%
market 73.5%we say 75.0%
Edge +1.5 · Return on stake +2.0% · Price 73.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 1.4%

Why this one

  • We make Rams 75.0% to hit — the market prices it at 73.5%. That 1.5-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 73.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 7:20 PMBroncos43.0¢ — too rich to play
43.044.4+1.4+3.3%
Our projected final
Rams 24.1–21.5 Broncos
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
No key injuries
  • QB Sam Ehlinger Out
  • RB RJ Harvey Out
  • WR Marvin Mims Out
  • TE Dallen Bentley Out
  • OT Kage Casey Out
32%44%56%
market 43.0%we say 44.4%
Edge +1.4 · Return on stake +3.3% · Price 43.0¢ · Quarter Kelly 0.6%

Why this one

  • We make Broncos 44.4% to hit — the market prices it at 43.0%. That 1.4-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 43.0¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 12:00 PMPatriots +2.545.5¢ — too rich to play
45.546.6+1.1+2.4%
Our projected final
Patriots 21.1–24.0 Jaguars
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Behren Morton Out
  • TE Tanner Arkin Out
  • OL Mike Onwenu Out
  • OL Walter Rouse Out
  • OT Dametrious Crownover Out
  • QB Quinn Ewers Out
  • WR CJ Williams Out
  • TE Tanner Koziol Out
  • DE Wesley Williams Out
  • DB Jalen Huskey Out
34%46%58%
market 45.5%we say 46.6%
Edge +1.1 · Return on stake +2.4% · Price 45.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 0.5%

Why this one

  • We make Patriots 46.6% to hit — the market prices it at 45.5%. That 1.1-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 45.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 12:00 PMChiefs85.5¢ — too rich to play
85.586.6+1.1+1.3%
Our projected final
Chiefs 28.8–17.3 Dolphins
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Garrett Nussmeier Out
  • TE Jared Wiley Out
  • OL Josh Simmons Out
  • DB Chamarri Conner Out
  • DE Jack Pyburn Out
  • QB Brady Cook Out
  • TE Justin Joly Out
  • WR Jalen Tolbert Out
  • DE Chop Robinson Out
  • DB Marcellas Dial Out
74%86%98%
market 85.5%we say 86.6%
Edge +1.1 · Return on stake +1.3% · Price 85.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 1.8%

Why this one

  • We make Chiefs 86.6% to hit — the market prices it at 85.5%. That 1.1-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 85.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
@Sun 12:00 PMpass
47.548.4+0.9—
Our projected final
Jets 20.8–27.2 Lions
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • RB Kene Nwangwu Out
  • DB D'Angelo Ponds Out
  • K Blake Grupe Out
  • LB Trevin Wallace Out
  • DB Minkah Fitzpatrick Out
  • DB Ennis Rakestraw Out
  • CB Avonte Maddox Out
  • OT Blake Miller Out
  • OL Christian Mahogany Out
  • DT Mekhi Wingo Out
36%48%60%
market 47.5%we say 48.4%

We make it 48.4% to hit; the market prices it at 47.5%. That 0.9-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 3:25 PMpass
53.554.4+0.9—
Our projected final
Raiders 20.3–23.2 Saints
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Aidan O'Connell Out
  • TE Brock Bowers Out
  • DB Dalton Johnson Out
  • DB Darien Porter Out
  • DB Tristin McCollum Out
  • QB Zach Wilson Out
  • RB Kendre Miller Out
  • CB Decamerion Richardson Out
  • DL Christen Miller Out
  • LB Isaiah Stalbird Out
42%54%66%
market 53.5%we say 54.4%

We make it 54.4% to hit; the market prices it at 53.5%. That 0.9-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 12:00 PMpass
26.527.3+0.8—
Our projected final
Seahawks 23.3–16.4 Commanders
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Commanders spread +6 → +6.5 · Total 41 → 39.5
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Sam Darnold Out
  • WR Montorie Foster Out
  • DE Mike Morris Out
  • DE Connor O'Toole Out
  • DB Ty Okada Out
  • QB Athan Kaliakmanis Out
  • QB Jayden Daniels Out
  • WR Luke McCaffrey Out
  • TE Chig Okonkwo Out
  • DT Ricky Barber Out
15%27%39%
market 26.5%we say 27.3%

We make it 27.3% to hit; the market prices it at 26.5%. That 0.8-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 12:00 PMpass
58.559.1+0.6—
Our projected final
Texans 23.3–20.2 Colts
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Graham Mertz IR
  • WR Nico Collins Out
  • TE Brevin Jordan Out
  • LB Jake Hummel Out
  • DE Jadeveon Clowney Out
  • QB Riley Leonard Out
  • WR Alec Pierce Out
  • RB DJ Giddens Out
  • WR Ashton Dulin Out
  • DE George Gumbs Out
47%59%71%
market 58.5%we say 59.1%

We make it 59.1% to hit; the market prices it at 58.5%. That 0.6-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 12:00 PMpass
51.051.6+0.6—
Our projected final
Bengals 22.8–19.3 Steelers
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 43.5 → 42
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Josh Johnson Out
  • CB Josh Newton Out
  • NT Landon Robinson Out
  • DT B.J. Hill Out
  • C Connor Lew Out
  • QB Will Howard Out
  • QB Drew Allar Out
  • RB Rico Dowdle Out
  • WR Michael Pittman Out
  • OT Gennings Dunker Out
39%51%63%
market 51.0%we say 51.6%

We make it 51.6% to hit; the market prices it at 51.0%. That 0.6-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 3:05 PMpass
52.052.6+0.6—
Our projected final
Cardinals 19.6–28.4 49ers
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Carson Beck Out
  • WR Reggie Virgil Out
  • DB Garrett Williams Out
  • DT Andrew Billings Out
  • RB Trey Benson IR
  • QB Kurtis Rourke Out
  • WR Demarcus Robinson Out
  • WR Jordan Watkins Out
  • CB Ephesians Prysock Out
  • OL Enrique Cruz Out
40%52%64%
market 52.0%we say 52.6%

We make it 52.6% to hit; the market prices it at 52.0%. That 0.6-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 3:25 PMpass
58.558.9+0.4—
Our projected final
Ravens 27.8–24.7 Cowboys
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Total 52 → 52.5
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Joe Fagnano Out
  • QB Skylar Thompson IR
  • WR Zay Flowers Out
  • LB Teddye Buchanan Out
  • DT Nnamdi Madubuike Out
  • RB Tyler Goodson Out
  • WR Camden Brown Out
  • LB James Houston Out
  • LB DeMarvion Overshown Out
  • DB Malik Hooker Out
47%59%71%
market 58.5%we say 58.9%

We make it 58.9% to hit; the market prices it at 58.5%. That 0.4-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

@Sun 3:05 PMpass
53.553.6+0.1—
Our projected final
Vikings 22.3–20.7 Buccaneers
from our game simulation · typical swing ±13
Line movement since open
Buccaneers spread +2.5 → +1.5
Injury report Sleeper
  • QB Kyler Murray Out
  • WR Jauan Jennings Out
  • DB Jakobe Thomas Out
  • DL Elijah Williams Out
  • OT Caleb Tiernan Out
  • DB Jacob Parrish Out
  • DL Elijah Simmons Out
  • DT DeMonte Capehart Out
  • DB Ayden Garnes Out
  • G Billy Schrauth Out
42%54%66%
market 53.5%we say 53.6%

We make it 53.6% to hit; the market prices it at 53.5%. That 0.1-point difference isn't enough edge to bet — we pass. Most nights the line is right, and saying so is the point.

The plays we see, priced against Polymarket where both sides add to 100, logged at the number you'd actually get, and scored against the close.

How to read this board

Every game gets an independent number from our model, set against the live Polymarket price. Where the two disagree enough, that's a play; where they agree, we pass. Nothing here is juiced — on Polymarket both sides add to 100.

Our numberThe bet we'd actually make — the side and the market (spread, total, or moneyline).
Model vs marketThe bar. The light tick is where the market prices it; the dark tick is our number. The shaded gap between them is the edge.
Market · We sayThose two ticks as percentages — the market's implied chance, then ours. We say minus market is the edge.
EdgeOur percentage minus the market's, in points. Bigger means we disagree with the market more, in your favor.
ReturnProfit per dollar risked at that price. A big edge on a pricey favorite still pays little — those show in red as "too rich to play."
Flagged vs passGold-edged rows are plays. A muted "pass" means we agree with the market — most nights that's most games, and saying so is the whole point.
Click any gameOpens the full scale, why we like it, the situational history, and a button to trade it straight on Polymarket.
Kept honestEvery play is logged at the price you'd really get and scored against where the line closes — win or lose, out in the open.
Play of the day Thu 9/24 · 6:30 PM CT · CFB
Under 51.5
at
35%47.5%60%
market 47.5%we say 48.9%
Edge+1.4
Return on stake+2.9%
Price47.5¢
Quarter Kelly0.6%
Our projected final
Liberty 27.3–24.7 Coastal Carolina
from our game simulation · typical swing ±16

Why this one

  • We make the under 48.9% to hit — the market prices it at 47.5%. That 1.4-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 47.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.

The board

Every NCAAF game with a live market. 1 flagged, 0 passed.

GameOur numberModel vs market MarketWe sayEdgeReturn
@Thu 6:30 PM · CFBUnder 51.547.5¢ — too rich to play
47.548.9+1.4+2.9%
Our projected final
Liberty 27.3–24.7 Coastal Carolina
from our game simulation · typical swing ±16
36%48%60%
market 47.5%we say 48.9%
Edge +1.4 · Return on stake +2.9% · Price 47.5¢ · Quarter Kelly 0.6%

Why this one

  • We make the under 48.9% to hit — the market prices it at 47.5%. That 1.4-point gap is the whole bet.
  • Our percentages are tested on thousands of past games: when we say 55%, it lands about 55%. Not a hunch.
  • At 47.5¢ every point of edge is worth more than the same point on a heavy favorite — that's the return-on-stake number.
Trade on Polymarket ↗
57 more NCAAF games have no market priced yet. They appear here as Polymarket opens them, usually Thursday night.

Model projections

Our model's projected yardage leaders for these matchups — a read on the game, not a betting play: no line, no edge. College only; receptions omitted.

Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
  • QB Deshawn Purdie 188 pass yds
  • RB Peyton Jones 49 rush yds
  • RB Kam Davis 48 rush yds
  • WR Makai Jackson 56 rec yds
  • WR Jamari Person 30 rec yds
  • QB Deuce Bailey 277 pass yds
  • RB Jevon Edwards 39 rush yds
  • WR Colton Hinton 51 rec yds
  • WR Goldie Lawrence 32 rec yds
  • WR Clayton Coppock 32 rec yds

Props

Every player prop, grouped by game. Filter by stat, jump to value or movers, or search a player. We log the opening line and track the move.

Giants @ Rams37 props14 moved
PlayerLineMoveEdge
Blake Corumrush yds47.5-2—
Cam Skatteborec yds12.5+1—
Colby Parkinsonrec yds28.5+1—
Darnell Mooneyrec yds17.5+3—
Devin Singletaryrec yds8.5+2—
Jaxson Dartpass yds212.5-1—
Jaxson Dartrush yds33.5+2—
Kyren Williamsrec yds15.5+1—
Kyren Williamsrush yds62.5-1—
Malachi Fieldsrec yds25.5-2—
Malik Nabersrec yds62.5-2—
Odell Beckham Jr.rec yds4.5-1—
Terrance Fergusonrec yds35.5+3—
Tyler Higbeerec yds13.5-1—
Cam Skatteboreceptions1.5——
Cam Skatteborush yds51.5——
Colby Parkinsonreceptions3.5——
Darnell Mooneyreceptions1.5——
Davante Adamsrec yds61.5——
Davante Adamsreceptions5.5——
Devin Singletaryreceptions1.5——
Devin Singletaryrush yds15.5——
Isaiah Likelyrec yds44.5——
Isaiah Likelyreceptions4.5——
Konata Mumpfieldrec yds14.5——
Konata Mumpfieldreceptions1.5——
Kyren Williamsreceptions2.5——
Malachi Fieldsreceptions2.5——
Malik Nabersreceptions5.5——
Matthew Staffordpass yds239.5——
Matthew Staffordrush yds0.5——
Terrance Fergusonreceptions2.5——
Theo Johnsonrec yds8.5——
Theo Johnsonreceptions0.5——
Tyler Higbeereceptions1.5——
Xavier Smithrec yds13.5——
Xavier Smithreceptions1.5——
Falcons @ Packers25 props6 moved
PlayerLineMoveEdge
Bijan Robinsonrush yds80.5+2—
Christian Watsonrec yds65.5-1—
Drake Londonrec yds59.5-4—
Jordan Lovepass yds232.5-6—
Kyle Pittsrec yds32.5-5—
Michael Penix Jr.pass yds202.5-4—
Bijan Robinsonrec yds40.5——
Bijan Robinsonreceptions4.5——
Brian Robinson Jr.rush yds24.5——
Chris Brooksrec yds7.5——
Chris Brooksrush yds16.5——
Christian Watsonreceptions4.5——
Drake Londonreceptions4.5——
Jahan Dotsonrec yds19.5——
Jahan Dotsonreceptions1.5——
Jordan Loverush yds8.5——
Kaleb Johnsonrush yds32.5——
Kyle Pittsreceptions3.5——
MarShawn Lloydrec yds5.5——
MarShawn Lloydreceptions1.5——
MarShawn Lloydrush yds30.5——
Matthew Goldenrec yds52.5——
Matthew Goldenreceptions4.5——
Tucker Kraftrec yds41.5——
Tucker Kraftreceptions3.5——
Rebels @ Gators20 props
PlayerLineMoveEdge
Aaron Philopass yds236.5——
Aaron Philorush yds21.5——
Bailey Stocktonrec yds18.5——
Bailey Stocktonreceptions2.5——
Caleb Odomrec yds38.5——
Caleb Odomreceptions3.5——
Dallas Wilsonrec yds57.5——
Dallas Wilsonreceptions3.5——
Deuce Alexanderrec yds73.5——
Deuce Alexanderreceptions5.5——
Horatio Fieldsrec yds40.5——
Horatio Fieldsreceptions4.5——
Jadan Baughrec yds8.5——
Jadan Baughrush yds118.5——
Traylon Rayrec yds38.5——
Traylon Rayreceptions3.5——
Trinidad Chamblisspass yds292.5——
Trinidad Chamblissrush yds25.5——
Vernell Brown IIIrec yds71.5——
Vernell Brown IIIreceptions5.5——
Longhorns @ Volunteers12 props
PlayerLineMoveEdge
Arch Manningpass yds251.5——
Arch Manningrush yds25.5——
Braylon Staleyrec yds42.5——
Cam Colemanrec yds61.5——
Emmett Mosley Vrec yds36.5——
Faizon Brandonpass yds209.5——
Faizon Brandonrush yds34.5——
Hollywood Smothersrec yds14.5——
Hollywood Smothersrush yds57.5——
Mike Matthewsrec yds52.5——
Radarious Jacksonrec yds30.5——
Raleek Brownrush yds47.5——
Tigers @ Bears11 props
PlayerLineMoveEdge
Adam Mohammedrec yds23.5——
Adam Mohammedrush yds78.5——
Bryant Wesco Jr.rec yds55.5——
Chase Hendricksrec yds59.5——
Gideon Davidsonrush yds83.5——
Ian Strongrec yds69.5——
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutelepass yds256.5——
Mason Minirec yds30.5——
T.J. Moorerec yds56.5——
Tait Reynoldspass yds219.5——
Tait Reynoldsrush yds39.5——
Coming soon

NCAAB

College basketball value plays — same model, no vig, CLV kept in the open. Priced against the market the moment the season tips off.

Coming soon

NBA

Pro basketball is next in line — team totals, spreads, and props, held to the same honest bar as the football board.

Dashboard

Your teams and saved plays, in one place — kept on this device, private to you.

Favorite teams

Watchlist

Across 115 closed picks, we've beaten the closing line by an average of 0.1 points. Straight-up record 64-48.

Results

Every play, logged and scored — 64-48 straight up · 112 graded · 3 awaiting final · 32 open.

NFL

Week 215-18-9.4% ROI
GameBetProjected → finalEntryPeak cash-outResultBeat close
Colts @ ChiefsSun 9/20Over 46.5—49¢+101.5%99¢ peakWon−2.0
Colts @ ChiefsSun 9/20Chiefs -6.5—49¢+18.4%58¢ peakLost−2.0
Commanders @ CowboysSun 9/20Commanders +3.5—48¢+7.3%52¢ peakLost+0.0
Dolphins @ 49ersSun 9/20Over 45.5—48¢+78.1%86¢ peakWon−1.0
Seahawks @ CardinalsSun 9/20Seahawks -4.5—47¢+111.7%100¢ peakWon+1.0
Seahawks @ CardinalsSun 9/20Under 40.5—48¢+93.8%93¢ peakWon+0.0
Dolphins @ 49ersSun 9/2049ers -13.5—49¢+102.1%99¢ peakWon−1.0
Commanders @ CowboysSun 9/20Under 50.5—48¢−2.1%47¢ peakLost+0.0
Jaguars @ BroncosSun 9/20Jaguars +2.5—47¢+74.6%82¢ peakLost+2.0
Jaguars @ BroncosSun 9/20Broncos—59¢+67.9%99¢ peakWon−1.0
Jaguars @ BroncosSun 9/20Over 44.5—52¢−6.1%49¢ peakLost+2.0
Jaguars @ BroncosSun 9/20Under 45.5—50¢+99.3%100¢ peakWon+1.0
Packers @ JetsSun 9/20Over 45.5—46¢−2.2%45¢ peakLost−1.0
Saints @ RavensSun 9/20Ravens -9.5—47¢+35.1%64¢ peakLost−1.0
Packers @ JetsSun 9/20Jets +3.5—51¢+94.1%100¢ peakWon+5.0
Panthers @ FalconsSun 9/20Panthers -2.5—51¢+95.1%100¢ peakWon−2.0
Eagles @ TitansSun 9/20Titans +6.5—46¢+117.4%100¢ peakWon+3.0
Vikings @ BearsSun 9/20Bears -6.5—47¢−5.3%44¢ peakLost−3.5
Browns @ BuccaneersSun 9/20Buccaneers -8.5—49¢+31.6%64¢ peakLost−1.0
Saints @ RavensSun 9/20Under 46.5—50¢+82.5%91¢ peakWon+5.0
Bengals @ TexansSun 9/20Over 46.5—47¢−3.2%46¢ peakLost−1.0
Vikings @ BearsSun 9/20Bears—66¢+2.3%68¢ peakLost+0.0
Eagles @ TitansSun 9/20Under 39.5—50¢+12.4%56¢ peakLost−1.0
Panthers @ FalconsSun 9/20Under 43.5—50¢+80.0%90¢ peakWon+2.0
Eagles @ TitansSun 9/20Eagles -7.5—47¢+36.2%64¢ peakLost−2.0
Vikings @ BearsSun 9/20Vikings +4.5—51¢+94.8%99¢ peakWon+0.5
Panthers @ FalconsSun 9/20Panthers—58¢+71.6%100¢ peakWon−3.0
Vikings @ BearsSun 9/20Over 47.5—47¢+3.2%48¢ peakLost−2.0
Steelers @ PatriotsSun 9/20Patriots -5.5—49¢+103.1%100¢ peakWon−2.0
Bengals @ TexansSun 9/20Over 45.5—49¢−3.1%48¢ peakLost+0.0
Packers @ JetsSun 9/20Packers -3.5—46¢+30.4%60¢ peakLost+0.0
Lions @ BillsThu 9/17Lions +4.5—50¢—Lost−3.0
Lions @ BillsThu 9/17Under 53.5—50¢—Lost−4.0

NCAAF

Week 349-30+3.8% ROI
GameBetProjected → finalEntryPeak cash-outResultBeat close
Purdue @ UCLASat 9/19UCLA—85¢—Won+0.0
Montana @ Oregon StateSat 9/19Montana +16.5—48¢—Lost+0.0
Fresno State @ San Jose StateSat 9/19San Jose State +4.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSat 9/19North Dakota State—96¢—Won+0.6
North Dakota State @ Sacramento StateSat 9/19Over 50.5—50¢—Lost+0.0
South Dakota @ Boise StateSat 9/19Boise State—95¢—Won+1.0
James Madison @ San Diego StateSat 9/19James Madison +1.5—48¢—Won+0.0
South Dakota @ Boise StateSat 9/19Under 58.5—48¢—Lost+0.0
UAB @ LouisianaSat 9/19Louisiana—74¢—Won−1.0
Arkansas State @ TCUSat 9/19TCU—91¢—Won+0.0
Arkansas State @ TCUSat 9/19Arkansas State +18.5—48¢—Lost+0.0
East Texas A&M @ TulsaSat 9/19Over 56.5—51¢—Lost+0.0
UAB @ LouisianaSat 9/19UAB +7.5—54¢—Won+0.0
New Mexico @ OklahomaSat 9/19Oklahoma—94¢—Won+0.5
LSU @ Ole MissSat 9/19LSU -2.5—51¢—Lost+2.5
Michigan State @ Notre DameSat 9/19Michigan State +29.5—52¢—Won+2.0
BYU @ Colorado StateSat 9/19BYU—89¢—Won+0.0
West Virginia @ VirginiaSat 9/19Virginia—79¢—Lost+1.0
Michigan State @ Notre DameSat 9/19Over 52.5—47¢—Lost+0.0
LSU @ Ole MissSat 9/19LSU -3.5—46¢—Lost−2.0
Colorado @ NorthwesternSat 9/19Colorado—38¢—Lost+1.0
New Mexico @ OklahomaSat 9/19Under 45.5—49¢—Won+0.0
Virginia Tech @ MarylandSat 9/19Over 53.5—48¢—Won+0.0
West Virginia @ VirginiaSat 9/19West Virginia +10.5—50¢—Won+0.0
Colorado @ NorthwesternSat 9/19Colorado +3.5—52¢—Lost+0.0
Eastern Washington @ WashingtonSat 9/19Over 58.5—51¢—Won+0.0
Florida @ AuburnSat 9/19Florida -2.5—52¢—Won−1.0
Georgia State @ UCFSat 9/19UCF—91¢—Won−0.5
Troy @ MissouriSat 9/19Missouri—97¢—Won−0.2
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateSat 9/19Jacksonville State—60¢—Won+1.0
Florida @ AuburnSat 9/19Auburn—46¢—Lost+1.0
Murray State @ Oklahoma StateSat 9/19Murray State +55.5—70¢—Lost+0.0
Nevada @ Middle TennesseeSat 9/19Middle Tennessee +3.5—49¢—Won+0.0
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville StateSat 9/19Georgia Southern +2.5—44¢—Lost+0.0
Delaware State @ South FloridaSat 9/19Delaware State +36.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
Troy @ MissouriSat 9/19Missouri -27.5—48¢—Lost+0.0
Florida @ AuburnSat 9/19Over 54.5—46¢—Won+0.0
Ohio @ South AlabamaSat 9/19Over 48.5—50¢—Won+0.0
Western Michigan @ RiceSat 9/19Western Michigan -9.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateSat 9/19Marshall—64¢—Won+0.0
Marshall @ Missouri StateSat 9/19Over 53.5—48¢—Won+0.0
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticSat 9/19Florida International—31¢—Won+2.0
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticSat 9/19Florida Atlantic -6.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
East Carolina @ Old DominionSat 9/19Under 48.5—50¢—Won+0.0
Mississippi State @ South CarolinaSat 9/19Under 58.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
Stanford @ DukeSat 9/19Duke—78¢—Won+0.5
Ball State @ LibertySat 9/19Liberty—85¢—Won+0.0
Northern Iowa @ IowaSat 9/19Over 49.5—48¢—Won+0.0
Louisiana Tech @ BaylorSat 9/19Louisiana Tech +19.5—49¢—Won+0.0
Ball State @ LibertySat 9/19Over 49.5—48¢—Won+0.0
Western Kentucky @ IndianaSat 9/19Western Kentucky +44.5—50¢—Won+0.0
USC @ RutgersSat 9/19USC—94¢—Won+0.0
Florida State @ AlabamaSat 9/19Florida State +17.5—48¢—Won+0.5
Florida State @ AlabamaSat 9/19Alabama—92¢—Won+1.0
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiSat 9/19Cincinnati—86¢—Won+0.0
Kentucky @ Texas A&MSat 9/19Texas A&M—88¢—Lost+0.0
SMU @ LouisvilleSat 9/19SMU—47¢—Lost−1.0
Wagner @ CaliforniaSat 9/19Over 65.5—49¢—Lost+0.0
UTEP @ MichiganSat 9/19Over 48.5—50¢—Won+0.0
USC @ RutgersSat 9/19Under 56.5—45¢—Lost+0.0
Stonehill @ UMassSat 9/19Stonehill +30.5—95¢—Won+0.0
Miami (OH) @ CincinnatiSat 9/19Miami (OH) +14.5—51¢—Won+0.0
Kentucky @ Texas A&MSat 9/19Over 49.5—50¢—Won+0.0
Florida State @ AlabamaSat 9/19Over 50.5—50¢—Won+0.0
Utah State @ UtahSat 9/19Over 56.5—48¢—Lost+0.0
Duquesne @ Washington StateSat 9/19Duquesne +38.5—53¢—Lost+0.0
Temple @ ToledoSat 9/19Temple—34¢—Lost+0.0
Southern Illinois @ IllinoisSat 9/19Over 56.5—49¢—Won+0.0
Maine @ Boston CollegeSat 9/19Over 53.5—54¢—Lost+0.0
Wyoming @ Central MichiganSat 9/19Central Michigan—49¢—Won+0.0
NC State @ VanderbiltSat 9/19NC State—38¢—Lost+2.0
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinSat 9/19Wisconsin—95¢—Won+0.0
Akron @ MinnesotaSat 9/19Minnesota—95¢—Won+0.0
Georgia @ ArkansasSat 9/19Over 52.5—55¢—Won+3.0
North Carolina @ ClemsonSat 9/19Over 44.5—47¢—Won+3.0
North Texas @ Texas StateSat 9/19Texas State—58¢—Won+0.0
Houston @ Texas TechFri 9/18Texas Tech—75¢—Won+1.0
Houston @ Texas TechFri 9/18Houston +7.5—99¢—Won+0.0
Syracuse @ PittsburghThu 9/17Syracuse +10.5—51¢—Lost+0.0

Return is profit per dollar risked at the quoted price — a 2.3-point edge on an 88¢ favorite pays a third of what the same edge pays at 48¢, which is why a rich favorite can show real edge and still not get played. Not financial advice.

21+. Nothing here is a guarantee — bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Availability of any market depends on your jurisdiction and the venue's own eligibility rules.